The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped essential oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers hardly ever step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding new reserves have the potential to toss governments' long-lasting preparation into turmoil.

Whatever the truth, rising long term worldwide needs seem certain to overtake production in the next years, particularly provided the high and increasing costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, ingredients and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this innovation to the forefront, among the wealthiest prospective production locations has actually been totally ignored by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to end up being a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign financial investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have mainly hindered their capability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mainly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their heightened need to generate winter electricity has resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn severely impacting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government officials, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those durable investors prepared to bank on the future, especially as a plant indigenous to the region has currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American business already investigating how to produce it in commercial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational efficiency ability and possible business practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another bonus of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A load (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly fine animals feed candidate that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been determined to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per pound can produce issues in germination to attain an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's capacity could enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's efforts at agrarian reform given that accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also purchased by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later on it had actually become a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots each year, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting approximately 60 percent of the nation's hard cash earnings.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet planners to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, leading to the dramatic shrinkage of the rivers' final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its initial size in one of the 20th century's worst eco-friendly catastrophes.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently service design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign investment. U.S. financiers have the cash and access to the expertise of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow in time; less particular is who will profit of developing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to go by it is not likely to be American and European investors, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American investors have the academic competence, if they are willing to follow the Silk Road into developing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the great deal of their agrarian population will get most cautious consideration from Central Asia's governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not only more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed faster.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.